Preview and Predictions: Kansas vs Arkansas

by Kyle Davis and Andy Mitts

The first time we saw this Kansas Jayhawks team was in late October in a charity exhibition game in Fayetteville against the Arkansas Razorbacks. So it’s fitting that the season is going to end for one of these teams in the same matchup.

KU wasn’t at full strength during the exhibition (no Hunter Dickinson) and now Arkansas won’t be at full strength Thursday, although it does get a key piece back. Here’s what to expect and what to watch for.

How to Watch

Thursday, March 20th, 6:10pm CST

Providence, RI: Amica Mutual Pavilion (11,648)
TV: CBS
- Andrew Catalon (Play-by-Play), Steve Lappas (Analyst), Evan Washburn (Reporter)
Radio: Jayhawk Sports Network
- Brian Hanni (Play-by-Play), Greg Gurley (Analyst)

The Numbers

RV/RV Kansas: 21-12, 11-9 Big 12
KenPom: 21st overall, 47th offense, 11th defense
Arkansas: 20-13, 8-10 SEC
KenPom: 40th overall, 73rd offense, 20th defense

Players to Watch

Arkansas has played the last month-plus without some of its best offensive weapons, and may have to do it again on Thursday.

• Freshman guard Boogie Fland has been out since January 18 but is looking to come back for the NCAA Tournament. He’s averaging 15 points and a team-high 5.7 assists per game.

• Arkansas will likely be without Adou Thiero, the athletic 6-8 four who averages a team-high 15.6 ppg and got to the line at an incredible rate. He’s not likely to go against KU with a knee injury that has kept him out since February 22.

Arkansas has relied on balanced scoring from the other key six players in its rotation. Trevon Brazile was excellent in the SEC Tournament, while guards DJ Wagner and Johnell Davis have stepped up of late.

Matchups to Watch

This is a defensive showdown, especially in the paint. Arkansas is eighth nationally in block percentage, and KU is not far behind at 33rd. Both teams make it difficult to score inside, and both Brazile and Jonas Aidoo are better defenders than they are scorers. Dickinson, KJ Adams, and Flory Bidunga’s ability to make close-range shots and keep Arkansas away from easy baskets is going to be huge.

The other area of focus is at point guard. Can Dajuan Harris make life tough on Fland coming back from injury? And more importantly, can Harris keep him from firing off open threes. Fland takes the most threes per game of anyone on the team and is shooting 36.5% from deep on the season.

Keys to the Game

1. Win the turnover battle.

   1. Both Arkansas and KU were near the bottom of their conferences in forcing turnovers, while Arkansas did slightly better taking care of the ball on offense. The Razorbacks have athletes and will get out and run, so KU has to avoid live-ball turnovers that lead to transition buckets.

2. Three-point quantity and quality.

   1. Another similarity between these two teams: neither of them take many threes. For Arkansas, 36.7% of their shots come from three, while KU is at 34.3%. Yet KU is shooting 35% from deep compared to the Razorbacks’ 33%. Arkansas has only attempted 30+ threes in a game once this year (Maryland Eastern Shore) and Arkansas’ opponents have made more threes than the Razorbacks in nine of its 13 losses.

3. No extra possessions.

   1. Arkansas’ offensive efficiency is saved a bit by its ability to get to the line and occasionally grab offensive boards (though not maybe at the clip you’d expect from a team this long and athletic). KU should focus on holding Arkansas to one shot per possession and force them to make tough shots.

Staff Predictions

Kyle: Arkansas has underperformed in year one under John Calipari with a team of talented players all brought in from other teams. But the talent is still there, and if Kansas doesn’t come in with intensity and effort, the Razorbacks can make them look bad. But I don’t think that will be the case. I think the Jayhawks have looked more focused the last few weeks and the offense has been better than most of the year. Zeke Mayo and the guards have to shoot decently from deep to take pressure off Dickinson, but if that happens, I think Kansas has enough on both ends to advance to the round of 32. Kansas 77, Arkansas 71

Andy: Arkansas is dealing with the same issue that has plagued John Calipari’s Kentucky teams for several years: relying on an extremely young squad to develop over the course of the season without the benefit of a core of upperclassmen. Add in that only one player in the rotation was at Arkansas last season, and there is just a lot of change on that team. I love the matchup here, as Arkansas is mostly focused on playing inside and Kansas has plenty of outside threats. The problem would be if Mayo is off, or if a combination of AJ Storr, Diggy Coit and Rylan Griffen can’t give Kansas a legitimate second threat from the perimeter. I think there is just enough going in the Jayhawks’ favor that they advance to take on St. Johns. Kansas 76, Arkansas 68

Derek: As Bill Self has said, everyone is 0-0 heading into Thursday, and honestly, If KU makes a deep run, he’s right in that no one will even remember a single thing about the regular season. That kind of fresh start may be perfect for KU, but their path won’t be easy. Arkansas will be a stiff challenge and represent the first time that Self and John Calipari have matched up in a tournament game that isn’t the national title game, but I think all the experience that KU has will play a role. I expect a nice game from Hunter Dickinson and if Zeke Mayo keeps up his hot shooting with the help of just one other guy, Kansas could be tough to beat. I’m optimistic that this one can go the way of the Jayhawks, I just think it’ll be close. Kansas 77, Arkansas 72.

Brendan: Teams with elite athleticism have given Kansas fits for a few years now, and that’s going to be an issue with this matchup considering the types of athletes Arkansas has. That said, I’m not sure how much else Arkansas brings to the table. I don’t want to sound too dismissive because obviously the Razorbacks are talented, but they don’t shoot the three very well, they likely won’t have Thiero available and, frankly, would you take 2025 Bill Self or 2025 John Calipari with the season on the line? I know my answer and he’s not paid by the Walton family (that I’m aware of, anyway). KU’s stars need to be great, meaning Hunter Dickinson needs to continue his recent excellence and Zeke Mayo needs to pretend that Amica Mutual Pavilion is actually just Allen Fieldhouse. If those guys excel and one other player steps up (Rylan Griffen, are you there?) I think the Jayhawks can get at least this one tournament win this season. Kansas 79, Arkansas 75.

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